The Orlando Magic and star forward Paolo Banchero are still waiting for their big breakthrough this season—despite high hopes, the progress hasn't yet materialized. But here's where it gets controversial: many fans and analysts might still believe Banchero is on the cusp of a significant leap, even if early results suggest otherwise.
SAN FRANCISCO — This year was billed as the moment when Banchero and the Magic would grow together, each pushing the other up the ladder. Yet, to this point, that anticipated upward trajectory hasn't fully appeared.
As we hit the one-third mark of the season, Orlando finds itself fighting to clinch a spot that would allow them to host a first-round playoff matchup, even amid adversity. The team’s struggles are partly due to injuries sustained by key players, on top of what has been one of the league’s most demanding schedules so far. Despite these challenges, the Magic are still very much in the playoff hunt—an encouraging aspect.
On the downside, the team’s current record stands at 16-13, which trails last season’s win total at this point by a single victory—29 games played then, 29 wins. Meanwhile, Banchero hasn't yet delivered the consistent, sky-high performance many expected of him early in his career.
Looking at his overall stats, Banchero’s averages—20.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game—seem solid. However, these numbers are actually a step back when compared to his previous seasons. His scoring average is the second-lowest in his career, and his three-point shooting has declined to a career-low percentage of 23.7%. These dips are concerning but understandable considering the context.
The primary culprit? Injury. Last year, persistent injuries caused him to miss 36 games, with a torn oblique muscle being particularly impactful. This injury hampered his conditioning and limited his explosiveness for quite some time after his return. This season, a groin strain has kept him sidelined for 10 games. Although he returned on December 5, he's still working to regain full rhythm.
"It was certainly a setback," Banchero admitted to The Athletic. "Nothing huge, but enough to be frustrating. I focused on rehab and getting back on the court as quickly as possible. Since it’s a groin injury, I knew it would take some time to get back to my best. But I’m feeling better now, and I’m eager to start really finding my groove and playing the way I know I can."
In a recent game Monday, Banchero delivered arguably his best performance since returning, putting up 21 points, grabbing 12 rebounds, and dishing out 7 assists. Yet, the team suffered a 120-97 defeat to the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center, a loss compounded by the absence of wing Franz Wagner (high-ankle sprain) and guard Jalen Suggs (hip contusion).
Interestingly, Orlando’s record in games where Banchero has played is 9-10, whereas they’ve been 7-3 in games he missed. This discrepancy might seem counterintuitive if Banchero is viewed as the franchise’s most essential player. However, there are several reasons behind this pattern, which deserve closer examination.
Many argue that Banchero is largely Orlando’s most offensively talented player. Complementing him, Wagner is their best in two-way contributions, while newcomer Desmond Bane has demonstrated reliability as a shooter and a key scoring option in crunch moments. Suggs adds a spark of energy and defense that elevates performances around him.
The team’s current starting five—Suggs, Bane, Wagner, Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr.—has outscored opponents by an impressive 18 points per 100 possessions. This lineup ranks among the league’s best, comparable to the Oklahoma City Thunder’s core group of Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Wallace, Holmgren, and Hartenstein, which boasts an 18.3-point advantage per 100 possessions. This underscores the talent and potential Orlando possesses if everyone stays healthy.
However, there’s a point of contention regarding the pairing of Banchero and Wagner. Their playing styles are strikingly similar—both tend to attack mismatches or draw defenders to create opportunities for perimeter shooters. Unfortunately, both also share a weakness: their shooting efficiency. Banchero has a career three-point percentage of 31.4%, and Wagner, despite recent improvement, averages only around 32.5%. Many critics question whether pairing two similar offensive players is the most effective strategy.
Banchero, when asked about the perception that the team plays better offensively when he and Wagner are on separate the floor, was frank. "That’s nonsense," he replied simply. "People will say whatever they want, but we know we’re strongest when both of us are out there."
He also emphasized that the perception about ball movement when only one of them plays isn’t true. "Sometimes, it looks that way because of different game situations, but if you watch closely, we run the same offense regardless. Nothing changes when one of us is off the court. We play the same way, especially offensively. I don’t buy into that narrative, but I understand why people say it—they see us at our best when both of us are in."
Banchero continues to excel as a passer. When opponents double-team him, he frequently finds open teammates, assisting on 21.2% of their made shots, according to NBA stats. His court vision and unselfishness make him a unique and versatile offensive threat.
Coach Jamahl Mosley praises his ability to draw defenders and create mismatches: “He’s capable of doing just about everything. He understands how much gravity he attracts and always trusts his teammates to make the right play. He’s 6-foot-10 and makes impressive passes—one of the best in the league at it.”
Defensively, Banchero’s strength remains attacking the rim and earning shooting fouls. Offensively, before his injury, he shot a modest 25% from three; after his return, that percentage has dipped further to about 21.9%. Many of his recent mid-range and long-range attempts have fallen short, indicating he’s still rebuilding leg strength.
But there’s good reason for hope. Last season, his oblique injury severely restricted his ability to jog and run, taking weeks to recover. Yet, once he regained his conditioning, Banchero showcased some of his best basketball down the stretch, averaging nearly 30 points over his final 20 regular-season games and performing strongly in the playoffs—averaging over 29 points per game with excellent shooting percentages.
With Wagner, Suggs, Tristan da Silva, and Moe Wagner returning from injuries, Banchero might soon face less defensive focus, opening up more options for him on both ends.
Since his comeback, he’s notably focused on facilitating offense, consistently looking to pass and create opportunities for teammates.
"His ability to be aggressive—driving, attacking the basket—is creating mismatches everywhere," Head Coach Jamahl Mosley commented.
This season’s high expectations for the Magic remain intact. There’s ample time for Orlando to realize its promise—contingent on good health and Banchero’s continued development, which everyone around him believes is achievable.
"The pressure of those expectations is always there," Banchero acknowledged. "But I just want to go out and enjoy playing the game I love. It’s about having fun and competing—the rest will follow. There’s a lot expected of us, but I don’t feel overwhelmed. We’ve got what it takes, and I believe that’s still ahead."**
